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By Marta Kobla\u0144ska, April 2003, Photo: Oil well extraction, Pixabay<\/p>\n
Whether the world has changed and stopped being a playground of tensions between groups with different interests. The answer can be partially found below. <\/strong><\/p>\n Thanks firstly to the British Council and the Reuters Foundation Programme for enabling me to come to Oxford and conduct the research. Many thanks to Paddy Coulter and Jenny Darnley for their support and kindness.<\/p>\n I am particularly grateful to Robert Mabro, the director of the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, who had patience with me and helped me to complete the project. I would like to thank him for the support and encouragement. I would like to thank Jonathan Stern, who kindly agreed to be my supervisor. His comments opened my thinking and did not let my brain remain fixed.<\/p>\n I would like to thank also Jan Krzysztof Bielecki, John Mitchell, Serguei Popov and Taras Sobolev who agreed to provide their knowledge of oil issues.<\/p>\n Many thanks to Rajeev Desphande and Hedwig Kainberger who helped me to polish the language.<\/p>\n Introduction<\/span><\/p>\n As Martin Woolf 1<\/a><\/sup>pointed out, the world\u2019s economy runs on oil and people have a right to fight for stable supplies. This means supplies at reasonable prices, which would guarantee economical performance and prove beneficial for citizens of the world.<\/p>\n Without getting into the question of equitable development, it could be more necessary to answer the question of whether the world has changed and stopped being a playground of tensions between groups with different interests. If not, then there remains an ongoing fight for hegemony between some countries, and only the fighting tools may be technologically and economically superior.<\/p>\n After the Second World War, the frontier of the conflict was clear: on the one side was the Soviet Union, having \u201ccaptured\u201d Eastern and South European peoples and then trying to export its ideology and the centrally planned economy to other parts of the world. On the other side of the fence was the United States with its alliance with Western Europe, representing democracy and market economies. The West, which stood for democracy and high living standards, was, however, seen by Eastern Europeans as having \u201csacrificed\u201d nations and people to the east of the Iron Curtain. This rich Western part of the world got its citizens used to a certain way of political expression, a certain standard of living and values, which altogether are more or less a product of the technological and economic development of those societies and value systems.<\/p>\n These values were always difficult to give up, and a worsening standard of living always meant political troubles. As the world\u2019s economy runs on oil and the resources are unfairly spread among countries, it is but natural that oil-importing countries would like to be assured of secure supplies. Reasonable oil prices make business cheaper, which contributes to higher demand for other goods and services, making financial markets smile, as people have more spare money to invest in successful companies. The economic boom is good for these people because when they retire, they benefit in terms of maintaining the high standards of living that they have been used to. Economic boom also makes the job of politicians easier. They do not need to worry about how to deal with unemployment and poverty. They do not know how to share the money of a sparse budget. When the economy is doing well, Western politicians can win elections by giving more privileges and thus satisfy their electorate.<\/p>\n The troubles start when the economy is going down or in the case of oil disruption, which, as \u201c petrol is vital for the functioning of the economy like bread\u201d\u00a02,\u00a0<\/a>is<\/span>\u00a0likely to lead to social demands, if not social conflict.<\/p>\n After the collapse of communism, politicians and nations announced a new order for the world and a new basis for political and economic partnership. Some of the former Soviet Union satellites, including Poland, the Czech Republic, and Hungary, became members of NATO, an organization which was believed to guarantee security in the case of a military threat, as it had been created after the Second World War in order to \u201c bring the French in, keep the Germans down and keep the Russians out\u201d3<\/a><\/sup>. Along with democracy spreading through the former Soviet bloc, political stability and efficient economies became factors determining membership of the \u201crich club\u201d.<\/p>\n But those countries, including Poland, which have not forgotten petrol quotas, electricity shortage, and the Soviet Union\u2019s domineering threatening attitudes and postures \u2013 including the possibility of oil supply cut-offs — the new realities do not appear so certain. The societies of former Soviet satellites have not forgotten that attempts to deviate from the imposed political line and command economy resulted in threats. And despite the political situation in Central and Eastern Europe having drastically changed after the fall of communism, fears of being at the receiving end of an \u201coil weapon\u201d are still widely shared in the region, including Poland.<\/p>\n A question whether oil supply is secured for countries, which through a historic turn of events face a new future, remains widely relevant. Whether the oil supply security has been significantly enhanced after the changes and whether it will be further enhanced after accession to the European Union still constitutes a vital issue. The answers to this debate remain subject to assessments and speculation. This does not reduce the implications of oil security on the unity between eastern and western Europe.<\/p>\n Full paper, including the literature and interviewers’ names, under the link below (Word version exported to PDF). The original language has not been changed.<\/p>\n